15E.01Page 67Part I: Diagnostic uncertaintyPre-test probability effectPre/post-test probability curve
15E.01Page 77Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 1: risk-benefit balanceClinician misestimation evidence
15E.01Page 78Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 1: risk-benefit balanceAbsolute vs. relative effects
15E.01Page 79Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 1: risk-benefit balanceReal-world efficacy dilution
15E.01Page 81Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 2: evidence certaintyConfounding example: setup
15E.01Page 82Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 2: evidence certaintyConfounding: unadjusted RR
15E.01Page 83Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 2: evidence certaintyConfounding: adjusted RR = 1.0
15E.01Page 86Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 2: evidence certaintyBias magnitude: ROR estimates
15E.01Page 98Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyIngredient 3: patient valuesOutcome weighting: stroke vs. bleed
15E.01Page 100Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyRecommendation strengthStrong: implement; weak: individualize
15E.01Page 101Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyRecommendation strengthUpToDate: 90% not high-confidence
15E.01Page 103Part II: Therapeutic uncertaintyRecommendation strengthWeak recs: mostly low-confidence
15E.01Page 113Shared decision-makingSHARE-IT decision aidLong-term reintervention: 802/1000 unaffected
15E.01Page 114Shared decision-makingSHARE-IT decision aidLong-term reintervention: very low certainty